Election latest: Tories at risk of wipeout in multiple regions - and more than half of cabinet projected to lose seats (2024)

Election news
  • Coming up on Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge at 7pm
  • Labour on course for best-ever election result
  • Top Tories tipped to lose - with more than half of cabinet at risk
  • SNP launches manifesto - see main policies
  • Galloway's Workers Party outlines key pledges
  • 'The plan is working': PM welcomes fall in inflation
  • Live reporting by Samuel Osborne and (earlier)Tim Baker
Expert analysis
  • Sam Coates:Tory wipeout on the cards in multiple regions
  • Gurpreet Narwan:Galloway's 2024 success may have peaked
  • Ashish Joshi:SNP has mixed record on NHS
  • Rob Powell:PM makes defence a key line of attack
Election essentials
  • Manifesto pledges:Conservatives|Greens|Labour|Lib Dems|Plaid Cymru|Reform|SNP
  • Trackers:Who's leading polls?|Is PM keeping promises?
  • Campaign Heritage:Memorable moments from elections gone by
  • Follow Sky's politics podcasts:Electoral Dysfunction|Politics At Jack And Sam's
  • Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans

17:13:08

Analysis: Tory wipeout on the cards in multiple regions if polling changes are right

Since the last YouGov MRP projection at the beginning of June, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since then, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid Cymru up two.

Reform UK wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win zero according to YouGov. This includes Reform leader Nigel Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a "toss-up" - but if all toss-up and close races in every seat where the Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132.

The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under then-leader Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares implied by this MRP are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June.

The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday to this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the South East, South West and East of England.

The party risks a complete or near wipeout in the North East, North West and Wales.

17:06:54

The senior Tories tipped to lose their seats - and big name Labour candidate also at risk

The YouGov MRP poll projects many big names will lose their seats on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to the projection.

Let's have a look at who they are and what their previous majority in their constituencies was.

Jeremy Hunt

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been the Tory MP for South West Surrey since 2005.

He held the seat with a 32,191 vote majority (53.3%) in 2019.

Mr Hunt is standing in the newly created constituency of Godalming and Ash this year against the Green's Ruby Tucker, Labour's James Walsh, the Liberal Democrats' Paul Follows, Reform UK's Graham Drage and Women's Equality's Harriet Williams.

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary has been the MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire since 2005. He won the seat with 27,394 votes in 2019, a majority of 52.6%.

He is standing against Jack Aaron for Reform UK, Sarah Butcher for the Greens, Andrew Lewin for Labour and John Munro for the Liberal Democrats.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has served as the leader of the House of Commons and has been the MP for Portsmouth North since 2010.

Ms Mordaunt, who has twice run for the Tory party leadership, held the seat with 61.4% of the vote in 2019, securing 28,172 votes.

She will face Simon Dodd from the Liberal Democrats, Amanda Martin from Labour, Stuart Robinson from the Greens and Melvyn Todd from Reform UK.

Victoria Atkins

Health Secretary Victoria Atkins was elected MP for Louth and Horncastle in Lincolnshire in 2015 and garnered 38,021 votes (72.7%) in 2019.

She will face Iconic Arty-Pole from the Monster Raving Loony party, independent Paul Hugill, Reform UK's Sean Matthews, Marcus Moorehouse for the SDP, Ross Pepper for the Lib Dems, Jonathan Slater for Labour and Robert Watson for the Greens.

Lucy Frazer

The culture secretary has been the MP for South East Cambridgeshire since 2015.

In 2019, she won 32,187 votes, or 50%.

Ms Frazer will stand in the new constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire against Robert Bayley for the SDP, Charlotte Cane for the Lib Dems, Andy Cogan for the Greens, Ryan Coogan for Reform UK, Hoo-Ray Henry for the Monster Raving Loony party, Labour's Elizabeth McWilliams and independents Obi Monye and Rob Rawlins.

Thangam Debbonaire

One Labour shadow cabinet minister, Thangam Debbonaire, is predicted to lose her seat to the Greens.

The shadow culture secretary has been MP for Bristol West since 2015 and garnered 62.3% of the vote with 47,028 votes in 2019.

The seat will be renamed Bristol Central and Ms Debonaire will be up against Reform UK's Robert Clarke, the Lib Dems' Nicholas Coombes, Carla Denyer from the Green party, Kellie-Jay Keen from the Party of Women and Conservative Samuel Williams.

17:00:08

Labour on course for best-ever election result - and Tories set for worst since 1906

Labour is on course for a historic majority of 200, according to a new YouGov projection for Sky News.

Sir Keir Starmer's party is tipped to win a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 won in 2019 and the party's best-ever result.

The Tories would slump to the lowest number of parliamentary seats since the party's formation with 108 - down from the 365 won in 2019 and even lower than a previous low of 141 in 1906.

It would give Sir Keir's party the second-largest majority since the Second World War when voters go to the polls on 4 July.

This poll gives Labour an even bigger win than previous MRP surveys, which are considered the gold standard for projecting results due to the large sample size of respondents and the additional information they take into account - such as geographic location.

Compared to YouGov's last poll of this type, from 3 June, the Tories have lost another 32 seats and Labour have gained three.

Some 15 of 27 Tory cabinet members still standing in this general election are projected to lose - including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt.

How do the other parties fare?

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six-times the number of seats they won in 2019.

That's their best result since the party's formation, too.

John Swinney's SNP is tipped to drop to 20 seats, down from the 48 Nicola Sturgeon won in the last general election.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on course for five seats, including the party leader winning Clacton, while the Greens have two and Plaid Cymru have four.

16:15:01

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Tonight features the first of Sophy's leader interviews for the 2024 general election campaign: Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats.

The pair discuss the party's plans for immigration, its stance on potentially rejoining the EU's single market, and why Sir Ed has been so open about caring for his son.

And of course, his campaign stunts come up too.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

15:50:01

Galloway's 2024 electoral success may have already peaked

George Galloway spent much of his manifesto speech talking about Nigel Farage.

The leader of the Workers Party of Britain warned of a political vacuum that was being created by the perceived failure of the major parties.

He said Reform UK was making dangerous advances as a result.

"There's a real chance Nigel Farage will run away with this election," he said.

While Reform UK and the Workers Party sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum, both seek to fill that aforementioned vacuum.

But Mr Galloway's party is not building the same kind of momentum and current polling suggests it won't return a single MP.

That would be a step back from February, when Mr Galloway won the Rochdale by-election, dropping candidate Azhar Ali at late notice after he was accused of antisemitism.

At the same time, Mr Galloway successfully capitalised on the frustration and anger at Labour's position on the Israel-Gaza conflict among Rochdale's Muslim population.

Muslims make up 20% of the population in Rochdale and there are 28 seats nationwide where they comprise more than a fifth.

Labour are directing activists to places like Luton to shore up support in the face of a threat from independent candidates and parties taking a strong pro-Palestine stance.

Mr Galloway warned today that Labour had lost the Muslim vote over their foreign policy stance.

Yet most Muslims rate the cost of living crisis and the NHS as their main priorities, ahead of the Middle East.

Labour might be concerned about losing some Muslim voters, but the majority are still planning to vote for them - and in higher numbers than the rest of the population.

Mr Galloway's opponents in Rochdale on 4 July are:

  • Andy Kelly, Lib Dems;
  • Martyn Savin, Greens;
  • Michael Howard, Reform;
  • Paul Waugh, Labour;
  • Paul Ellison, Conservatives.

15:33:01

Galloway's Workers Party of Britain launches manifesto

The Workers Party of Britain has launched its manifesto today.

The party is led by George Galloway, who won a by-election in Rochdale earlier this year and is looking to retain the seat.

Mr Galloway's opponents in Rochdale on 4 July are:

  • Andy Kelly, Lib Dems;
  • Martyn Savin, Greens;
  • Michael Howard, Reform;
  • Paul Waugh, Labour;
  • Paul Ellison, Conservatives.

Here is what his party wants to do:

  • Raise the personal tax threshold to £21,200;
  • Introduce a one off 5% wealth tax on all estates "valued fairly" at over £10m - estimated to bring in a £17bn windfall;
  • Call for a single state in which all those born in Palestine and Israel can "live in peace with equal rights";
  • Review defence and foreign policy, including a referendum on the UK's NATO membership in which the party would back leave;
  • Introduce a migration policy that "reflects anxiety among the working class" but also acknowledges "some of this anxiety is stoked by the racist right";
  • Consider the nationalisation of rail, electricity, water, the military-industrial complex, national food logistics, ports, and airports;
  • Hold a net-zero referendum to create a national debate "on who profits from these targets and on what terms", and oppose ULEZ initiatives;
  • Propose major review of pensions policy - aiming to restore option of all workers retiring at 60;
  • Free public travel for children - as in London - for the rest of the country;
  • Free "good quality and nutritious" breakfast and lunch meals during term time to all children without means testing;
  • Get police to "refocus on street safety and estate crime as an antidote to policing by Twitter and criminalising speech and thought".

15:15:01

In pictures: Wives of Conservative ministers go campaigning

The wives of three Conservative ministers - including the PM - have been out on the campaign trail.

Susie Cleverly, wife of Home Secretary James Cleverly; Lucia Hunt, wife of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt; and Akshata Murty, wife of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak; joined Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer in Ely and East Cambridgeshire constituency today.

The group were seen handing out leaflets in Fordham, Suffolk.

The full list of candidates for Ely and East Cambridgeshire is:

  • Robert Bayley, Social Democratic Party;
  • Charlotte Cane, Liberal Democrats;
  • Andy Cogan, Green Party;
  • Ryan Coogan, Reform UK;
  • Lucy Frazer, Conservative Party;
  • Hoo-Ray Henry, Monster Raving Loony Party;
  • Elizabeth McWilliams, Labour Party;
  • Obi Monye, independent;
  • Rob Rawlins, independent.

15:00:01

Analysis: Scotland is the UK's top health spender - and it'll need to go even higher

By Ashish Joshi, health correspondent

In the SNP manifesto it says funding for Scotland's NHS "has more than doubled" and "staffing is at a record high" - with "far more doctors and nurses per head" than in the rest of the UK.

This is true.

What is also true is that since the pandemic, the Scottish NHS workforce has grown substantially, but its hospital productivity has fallen.

Higher spending and recruitment has not been matched by an increase in the number of patients being seen and cared for.

Scotland's elective waiting list has grown (more than England's), as have the country's longer term waits for operations and A&E waiting times (though these are higher in England).

The SNP says it will invest £300m to drive down these waiting times, money it says it will raise through "devolution of tax powers".

The Scottish government spends more on health than any other area.

And with an ageing population with complex health needs, it will need to spend more in the years ahead.

According to research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, at the start of devolution Scotland was spending more per person on health than England or Wales, but this gap has narrowed.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission projects spending will need to grow by around 3% in real terms over the next two decades and that much of this spending will go towards increased staffing.

14:40:01

Sunak and Starmer condemn Just Stop Oil vandalising Stonehenge

In the past hour or so, Just Stop Oil released a video of its members spraying Stonehenge with orange paint.

They did this to warn of the climate crisis ahead of this week's summer solstice.

Sunak: A disgraceful act of vandalism

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was asked about the incident this afternoon.

He said: "This is a disgraceful act of vandalism to one of the UK's and the world's oldest and most important monuments.

"Just Stop Oil should be ashamed of their activists, and they and anyone associated with them, including a certain Labour Party donor, should issue a condemnation of this shameful act immediately."

Dale Vince, a Labour donor who previously donated to Just Stop Oil, said last year he had stopped giving money to the group.

Starmer: Just Stop Oil are pathetic

Sir Keir Starmer has also condemned the incident today.

"The damage done to Stonehenge is outrageous," he tweeted.

"Just Stop Oil are pathetic.

"Those responsible must face the full force of the law."

14:17:01

Starmer's wife 'felt sick' at protest outside home

Three people are on trial at Westminster Magistrates' Court following a protest outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.

The demonstration happened back in April.

Giving evidence today, Sir Keir's wife Victoria said seeing the protest - which involved a banner saying "Starmer stop the killing" in reference to the war in Gaza - made her feel "a bit sick".

"I felt apprehensive and uncomfortable," she added.

Mrs Starmer said she was returning from a shopping trip with her son at the time, and chose to keep driving.

Asked by the defence's lawyer if the protest looked peaceful, she said: "It would look like a peaceful protest if it hadn't been outside my home."

Leonorah Ward, 21, of Leeds, Zosia Lewis, 23, of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, and Daniel Formentin, 24, of Leeds, deny public order offences and breaching bail.

The trial continues.

Election latest: Tories at risk of wipeout in multiple regions - and more than half of cabinet projected to lose seats (2024)
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