National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --763FXUS61 KAKQ 281956AFDAKQAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNational Weather Service Wakefield VA356 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024.SYNOPSIS...
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Heat and humidity return for Saturday and Sunday. A cold frontdrops across the area late Sunday night through Monday morning.Ahead of it, strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall areexpected. Dry weather is then expected through the middle ofnext week with additional heat concerns possible forIndependence Day.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...As of 300 PM EDT Friday...High pressure to the N slid offshore this afternoon and is nowcentered off the coast of New England. Pretty quiet today with dryweather and scattered to broken CU across the area. Temps have riseninto the mid to upper 80s for much of the area, but breezy onshorewinds have kept coastal locations cooler. Areas along the coast areshowing the low 80s and the Eastern Shore only in the upper 70s sofar. Expect another degree or two to be added before the afternoonis over. Cloud cover will temporarily thin out later this evening,then build back in after midnight through sunrise. Lows tonight willbe in the upper 60s for much of the area with lower 70s in the SEand immediately along the bay.&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Friday...Key messages:- Hot and humid conditions return for the weekend, peaking onSunday with dangerous heat indices around 105F.- A cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms andheavy rain on Sunday.Sfc high pressure to the NE slides farther offshore Saturday as lowpressure moves into Eastern Canada with its trailing cold frontgradually approaching Appalachia. A weak warm front will push northof the area, bringing southerly flow and hot temps. Should be mainlydry Sat, but may see isolated showers and thunderstorms across thearea as weak shortwave energy passes through the area. CAMs do showsome morning convection along the coast, so have introduced SchcPoPs in the SE. Highs will be in the low 90s. With dewpoints up intothe low 70s, heat indices will be in the upper 90s to around 100.Sat night will not offer much relief from the heat with lows in theupper 70s.An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year, atleast) will approach the area Sunday, crossing the region Sun nightinto Monday. Ahead of the front, S/SW flow will allow hot and humidconditions to continue. Cloud cover and potential morning precipcould hinder temperatures, but still expecting highs in the low-mid90s. With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating,dangerous heat indices around 105F are in the forecast. Note thatthe dew point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower thanNBM and is more in line with MOS values. While the potential formorning convection exists, the main threat for scattered to numerousstorms will be in the afternoon and into the overnight hours.Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, especially for the SE halfof the FA where PWs will approach 2.5". As such, WPC has placed thisportion of the area in a Marginal ERO. Instability provided by theheat/humidity along with moderate shear will allow for some stormsto be strong to severe, despite the stronger winds aloft being tothe N. Thus, there is a slight risk for severe storms for much ofthe FA (~N of US460) and a Marginal elsewhere. Precip will clear outfrom NW to SE late Sunday night. Lows will be mid to upper 60s NWfor most and the low 70s to the far SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Friday...Key Message:- A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day.High pressure fills in behind the front, bringing dry weatherthrough mid week. Relatively cooler temps and much lower dewpointswill bring brief relief from the heat and humidity. Highs will be inthe low to mid 80s. Warming some on Tuesday with highs in the mid80s, but onshore flow keeps temps a few degrees cooler at the coast.Hot weather returns mid week with highs in the low 90s Wed and mid-upper 90s on the Fourth of July. With dewpoints creeping back toward70 on Thursday, there is the potential for heat indices over 100.Remaining dry through at least Wed with a chc for afternoonthunderstorms on Thursday. .
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...As of 130 PM EDT Friday...SCT cloud cover is present across the FA this afternoon with cloudbases around 3-4kft. Have seen a few instances of brief MVFRwith thicker patches of clouds, but otherwise VFR today. Cloudcover will temporarily scatter out this evening, then build backtoward BKN after midnight. Guidance favors MVFR across most TAFsites late tonight into early Sat. Cannot rule out IFR at RICduring the early morning hours. ENE winds will continue to begusty along the coast through the afternoon. Winds turn to theSE late tonight.High pressure and mainly dry conditions will prevail for todaythrough at least Sat morning. Sctd showers/tstms are likelySun into Sun night. High pressure and drier conditions returnfor Mon.&&.MARINE...As of 300 PM EDT Friday...Key messages:- Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezyonshore/southerly winds this evening through the weekend.- A period of SCA conditions is very likely on Monday with northerlywinds behind a cold front.- Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday.The secondary cold front is south of the waters this afternoon withhigh pressure centered south of Long Island. There is still a decentpressure gradient in place, which is resulting in E-NE winds around15 kt with gusts to 20 kt over the marine area. Winds become SE andremain near 15 kt this evening-tonight as the high pushes offshorebefore becoming SSE on Saturday. Could see a period of low-end SCAconditions on the bay late Sat evening-Sat night as the winds becomemore southerly and increase to 15-20 kt. Local wind probs show a 40-70% chc of sustained 18 kt winds between 8 PM Sat-4AM Sun (higheston the mid/upper bay). Winds diminish to 10-15 kt and become SSW bymid to late Sun AM.A decently strong summer cold front looks to approach the areaSunday before crossing the waters from N-S between 4-10 AM Mondaymorning. Scattered to numerous tstms are expected Sun aftn throughthe first part of Sun night, which will likely necessitate SMWs (afew of the storms could even produce 50 kt wind gusts). Sub-SCAoutside of any storms from Sun-late Sun evening. However, there willbe decent cool/dry advection following the cold FROPA Mondaymorning, which will allow N winds to increase to ~20 kt (withfrequent gusts around or just above 25 kt). SCAs will likely beneeded for all of the Ches Bay, Lower James, and maybe even theupper rivers/coastal waters. Local wind probs show nearly a 100% chcof sustained 18 kt winds Mon AM, with low (~20%) probs of sustained25 kt winds.Waves/seas 1-3 ft/2-4 ft this afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft thisweekend with 1-3 ft waves. Seas could build to 5 ft S of CapeCharles on Monday following the cold FROPA (with 3-4 ft waves). Sub-SCA waves and seas are expected from Mon night through the middle ofnext week.There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic- coastbeaches in the FA through Saturday.&&.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...MD...None.NC...None.VA...None.MARINE...None.&&$$SYNOPSIS...AM/TMGNEAR TERM...AMSHORT TERM...AMLONG TERM...AMAVIATION...AMMARINE...ERI